http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/columnists/cs-0612...d&ctrack=1&cset=true

Don Pierson's column in the Chicago Trib

For those who don't want to jump through all the hoops of registering at the Tribune and being offered "4 No-Risk Issues" of Popular Science, etc., here are some excerpts. A lot of the rest was examples of QBs who hit the wall or crashed around the age of 38.

----------
Brett Favre reaches that expiration date for QBs next year...He will turn 38 on Oct. 10. As peculiar and arbitrary as it seems, age 38 represents a wall for so many quarterbacks it's impossible to ignore... To quarterbacks, it's like 65 is to Medicare...Favre, the most indestructible QB, still needs seven touchdown passes to tie Dan Marino's record 420 and he's not likely to get them all Sunday night against the Bears...The Packers will play five games next season before he turns 38, and if he charges past that age without a hitch, he truly will defy the odds...Lots of quarterbacks don't reach 38. Bart Starr and Roger Staubach quit at 37. [etc]...Favre will be tempting the fate of 38 by sticking around.

Favre should go for it. His arm is in far better shape than Starr's was at this age. I recall Starr had some surgery on his shoulder/upper arm to try to keep it decent.

I can just picture this Chicago guy running the numbers (as if conventional numbers apply much to Brett) feverishly hoping that the trend holds and the "38 Fairy" comes along and makes Favre instantly crummy or causes him to have an injury next year.

Wasn't Gannon 38 in the Raiders SB season?

Come to think about it the quarterbacks in the NFL seldom start 200 plus consecutive games, nor do they win three MVPs. Do ya think Favre may be special and your normal statistics may not apply to him?

quote:

Originally posted by Fountainfox:
Wasn't Gannon 38 in the Raiders SB season?

He was 37. I guess he would be the classic case of falling off at 38.

Vinny Testaverde was 40 when he put up a 90 QB rating, although he only played in 7 games. He followed that with a 3500 yard season at 41. Granted, he's an exceptional case. I tend to think Favre is also exceptional. As long as he's not on the cover of Madden 2008, he'll be fine. Speaking of that, I wonder if they will try to get LT on the cover next year?

Brad Johnson was 37 last year and played pretty well.

He's 38 now, and.... riding the pine.

quote:

Originally posted by Legacy:
For those who don't want to jump through all the hoops of registering at the Tribune.......

..... try BugMeNot. Works great!

quote:

Originally posted by Ferrari:
Come to think about it the quarterbacks in the NFL seldom start 200 plus consecutive games, nor do they win three MVPs. Do ya think Favre may be special and your normal statistics may not apply to him?

Great point!

He's not your usual QB!

I would be curious to see how the stats work out for the QB's who started their careers after 1993(or whenever the rules really started to protect the QB like a sissy)...

...it's just that recent rules have really made it tough to get a good hit on the QB....years ago, the QB was more open game and took many more hits, which usually shortened their playing days.

i.e., the sliding rule for QB where you can't touch them, helmet to helmet or no touching the QB's helmet, no diving after knees, the "one step" rule to hit the QB...etc. etc.

these recent rule changes could extend the Quarterback's Expiration age to 40....

The guy did give a little lip service to Favre being out of the ordinary, but then went on and on with lots more examples of guys who had a great rating their first few games, then turned 38 and broke their hand or something, and lots of heebie jeebies about how Brett's tempting fate if he tries to come back.

I thought most of the media has been saying Favre lost it two years ago, so I'm not sure what this would matter.

quote:

Originally posted by Ferrari:
Come to think about it the quarterbacks in the NFL seldom start 200 plus consecutive games, nor do they win three MVPs. Do ya think Favre may be special and your normal statistics may not apply to him?

Starting 200 plus games is impressive. But touting 3 MVP's when the article mentioned several QB's that have some pretty impressive "stats" that might compare very favorably to Favre.

Let's look at some of those QB's that left the game on or about the age of 38:

Bart Starr - 2 Super Bowl rings, 2 Super Bowl MVP's, and I think 3 other NFL Championships for a total of 5...

Joe Montana - 4 Super Bowl Rings, 3 Super Bowl MVP's...

Roger Staubach - 2 Super Bowl Rings, 1 Super Bowl MVP...

John Elway - 2 Super Bowl Rings, 1 Super Bowl MVP...

Dan Marino - no SB rings, no SB MVP, but it's his TD record that Favre is chasing...



These guys are pretty "special", and set a very high standard for their play. I wouldn't try and say that they were "normal" but

This article is to be expected from a Chicago Sportswriter. All they do here is pray for the day that Favre retires. If and when he does retire I wouldn't be surprised if there was a city wide holiday and a huge party thrown to celebrate. Even in today's paper Lovie was quoted "We can't wait for him to retire" "But I have a feeling he will be around for awhile". Everyday I have people ask me if Favre is going to retire. When they played the Monday night game in Champaign a few years ago all you could hear walking to the car after the game was "when is that guy going to retire?" They are obsessed with Favre.

Ye Gads, since this game has become meaningless, are we going to hear the endless "Brett's last game?" crudola the WHOLE game?

i really don't understand the sentiment that favre has had a great year. i think he's below average at this point, his passer rating was lousy and he as many INT's as TD's.

he does show flashes of good play and occasionally makes the throws that people were accustomed to seeing but he also makes an awful lot of poor plays and overall his stats are similar to several qb's than have been benched this season.

he's proven that he can still play, but he hasn't shown that it is at a high level, just higher than anyone else on the current depth chart.

quote:

Originally posted by Anthony Dilweed:
i really don't understand the sentiment that favre has had a great year. i think he's below average at this point, his passer rating was lousy and he as many INT's as TD's.

he does show flashes of good play and occasionally makes the throws that people were accustomed to seeing but he also makes an awful lot of poor plays and overall his stats are similar to several qb's than have been benched this season.

he's proven that he can still play, but he hasn't shown that it is at a high level, just higher than anyone else on the current depth chart.

The reason you don't understand the sentiment is that you are not capable of looking at the whole team objectively.

He sure looked good last night.

He sure looks good 11 months later.

The link in the first post doesn't work.

I found the article elsewhere on the net since I don't think Pierson works for the Tribune anymore.
----------

By Don Pierson
Published December 29, 2006

Not many athletes quit before they have to, and no quarterback ever before has started 236 straight NFL games. So not many people believe Brett Favre wants to stop after 237 Sunday at Soldier Field. Counting playoff starts, which Favre does and nobody blames him, the Bears will be game No. 257 without a miss.

Favre hasn't talked publicly about his future since Dec. 20. More than likely he doesn't yet know himself whether he wants to come back. But one thing he said sticks out: "If I said I were to retire, I know I would feel guilty that . . . I still have some talent here to use."

On the other hand, Favre has said he would rather leave with a little left than overstay his welcome.

Another consideration is the Packers' competitiveness. If they don't make the playoffs, staying alive until the final week is enough to entice Favre's return. The Packers bottomed out at 4-12 last season and are on the rebound.

Donald Driver happens to lead the NFC in receptions and receiving yards and is one of the most underrated players in the league. Greg Jennings is a worn-out rookie but has terrific promise. Favre's two rookie guards, Daryn Colledge and Jason Spitz, look like answers rather than questions. The defense is above average and getting stronger, with rookie linebacker A.J. Hawk leading the team in tackles.

So what's to convince Favre to leave?

One thing, and he's not likely to pay a bit of attention to it: He will turn 38 on Oct. 10. As peculiar and arbitrary as it seems, age 38 represents a wall for so many quarterbacks it's impossible to ignore. Favre would be starting regular-season game No. 238 next opener, but the more intriguing number is 38. To quarterbacks, it's like 65 is to Medicare.

The latest example this season is Minnesota's Brad Johnson. Two days before his 38th birthday, the Vikings opened the season with a 19-16 victory over the Redskins in Washington. Johnson completed 16 of 30 passes for 223 yards and a touchdown.

"He's just so smart, and he's obviously crafty to have played in the league this long," Vikings center Matt Birk said.

Then Johnson turned 38. The Vikings beat the Panthers, but Johnson failed to throw a touchdown pass and has thrown only eight since against 15 interceptions for a passer rating of 71.9, his worst since he first started games 10 years ago. The Vikings have plummeted to 6-9, Johnson was benched for rookie Tarvaris Jackson and his Minnesota days, if not his NFL days, are probably over.

Not every quarterback makes it to 38, of course. Fewer make it past 38. The Redskins' Mark Brunell, once one of Favre's backups, was benched this year at 36. The Cardinals' Kurt Warner lost his job at 35. The Cowboys' Drew Bledsoe looks done at 34. The Titans gave up on Steve McNair, but the Ravens noticed he is still only 33.

Vinny Testaverde re-signed as a backup for the Patriots this season at 43. His last 16-start season was with the Jets in 2001, the year he turned 38. He started 15 games for Dallas at 41 but threw more interceptions than touchdown passes and the Cowboys were 6-10.

Doug Flutie retired before the season at age 43. His only 16-start NFL season was in San Diego in 2001, when he turned 39 midway through it. He started only six games in four subsequent seasons.

Warren Moon broke the 38 barrier most successfully. His last 16-game season was with the Vikings in 1995, when he threw 33 touchdown passes at age 39. In Seattle in 1997, he threw 25 touchdown passes in 14 starts for the 8-8 Seahawks the season he turned 41.

Sonny Jurgensen won the NFC passing title with the Redskins at 40 in 1974, but he was sharing time with 35-year-old Billy Kilmer.

"There wasn't a good body between us," Jurgensen said.

George Blanda? He played until 48 but mainly as a kicker. When he was 38, he threw 30 interceptions for Houston in the AFL. His playing time was cut in half at 39 and then he was traded to Oakland, where he never threw more than 58 passes in a season.

Favre, the most indestructible QB, still needs seven touchdown passes to tie Dan Marino's record 420 and he's not likely to get them all Sunday night against the Bears.

His competitive side suggests he will go for it, but 38 may be the more daunting number. The Packers will play five games next season before he turns 38, and if he charges past that age without a hitch, he truly will defy the odds.

Marino and Steve Young went into the Hall of Fame together in 2005 and turned 38 in their last seasons. Young suffered his last concussion two weeks before his 38th birthday and never played again.

John Elway missed four games with injury in his final season at 38 and went out on top after winning his second Super Bowl with the Broncos.

Joe Montana played his final season for the Chiefs at 38. The year Fran Tarkenton turned 38, he threw almost as many interceptions as his age, 32, and retired.

John Unitas led the Baltimore Colts to the Super Bowl title at 37. At 38, he had Achilles' tendon surgery. He played until 40 but never threw more than four touchdown passes in a season after 37.

Y.A. Tittle led the New York Giants to the 1963 title game against the Bears at age 37. At 38, Tittle's Giants crashed to 2-10-2 and he retired.

The Chiefs replaced Len Dawson when injuries nagged him at 38. He regained the job the following year, but the Chiefs had their first losing season in 11 years. Dawson shared playing time at 40 before retiring.

Lots of quarterbacks don't reach 38. Bart Starr and Roger Staubach quit at 37. Bobby Layne, Jim Kelly and Dan Fouts were 36. Terry Bradshaw and Bob Griese were 35. Sid Luckman, Otto Graham, Norm Van Brocklin, Joe Namath and Troy Aikman were 34.

The phenomenon of 38 isn't new. As soon as the Redskins' Sammy Baugh turned 38 in 1952, he broke his hand in the preseason, threw only 33 passes that year and retired.

Favre will be tempting the fate of 38 by sticking around.

Oops!

I guess those six 300 yard passing games got in the way...Brett why you do that?

I noticed I started feeling my age at 42.
If Brett has a real good season he might:
A. leave on a high note
B. decide he has 1 more year in him.

But when you hit that age wall, your body says no while your brain says yes.
If I were Brett I would go 1 more year. Simply because he is having a lot of fun.

quote:

Originally posted by Anthony Dilweed:
i really don't understand the sentiment that favre has had a great year. i think he's below average at this point

you thought wrong.

As my boss watched the Packers on the big screen at the West Palm Beach Airport (Yes, FOX showed the game in Florida) Sunday, he was thinking that Brett may call this his last year, as it would be nice to go out on a season like this. I told him that my opinion was that if Brett's year continues to go as it is now, don't be surpprised at all when he comes back next year. He's having too darn much fun!!

He's always maintained that he will play as long as he is physically able and as long as its still fun. Of course, things in his private life will also be a factor, so nothing is certain.

But as far as this "38 jinx" on NFL QBs go, let me say this: This particular QB is a big exception. He holds so many records, not the least of which is in consecutive starts. His health and condition are that of a much younger guy.

And besides JAPF, I don't believe in jinxes.