Guy in my dynasty league is shopping the No. 1 rookie pick, which will no doubt be Darren McFadden.

Naturally, he's looking for a lot - my No. 11 pick, plus a very good player (and even that might not get it done).

If you're convinced that McFadden is going to be a superstar like Adrian Peterson, as opposed to a disappointment like Reggie Bush, tell me why you think so.

I'm not convinced one way or another, but I think it's awfully hard to pull the trigger on that before you know where McFadden is ending up. He could go to a team with an awful offensive line. Or there could be some truth to those Dallas rumors and he'll be sharing the load.

As great as Peterson was last year, I'm not sure he would have had the same success with every team. Minny was sort of a great situation for him because they have a pretty good o-line and were committed to the run.

Thanks for the input. I agree any deal should wait until we see where he ends up.

That said, it looks more and more like the workhorse backs are going away. I could see him sharing the workload almost anywhere he goes. (Although probably with a lesser back than Marion Barber in most places.)

Mostly I'm just wondering if people think he'll look as good at the NFL level as in college. Reggie Bush is on a pretty good team with a very good offensive line, and there's nothing really special about him, so far anyway.

I always look at it like this.....

If the guy (#1 overall pick) is THAT good, why is your opponent wanting to trade?

Stick with #11. Something tells me McFadden won't be worth the "mint" this guy is asking for.

P.S. I guess I didn't do a very good job of selling you on McFadden.

He's good....


Insert Shocker.

Peterson is already a superstar?

Like Icky Woods?

quote:

Originally posted by FreeSafety:
Peterson is already a superstar?

Like Icky Woods?

He has shown the ability to play in the NFL at a superstar level. Setting the single-game rushing record against a pretty good run defense and being on track to break the rookie rushing record pre-knee injury proves the guy is extremely talented.

Obviously, his career could be derailed by injuries and whatnot, but there's little doubt in the minds of almost everyone that he is a superstar talent.

I think McFadden will be a good NFL player, maybe even great. I wouldn't give up the 11th overall and another player for him though. At #11 you could get close to an equal value from a fantasy perspective and then he wants you to give up another player?

Seems he is banking on some sort of Peterson-coat-tails RB love to dump the 1st (rookie) pick.

quote:

Originally posted by Hungry5:
I think McFadden will be a good NFL player, maybe even great. I wouldn't give up the 11th overall and another player for him though. At #11 you could get close to an equal value from a fantasy perspective and then he wants you to give up another player?

Seems he is banking on some sort of Peterson-coat-tails RB love to dump the 1st (rookie) pick.

Well, since it's only a rookie draft, with the 11th pick I'm probably looking at a running back drafted in the 3rd round or so, or maybe a 2nd-round wide receiver. In other words, it's a lesser prospect whose odds of NFL success are probably a lot slimmer than that of McFadden. Last year the guys taken there in the rookie draft were probably guys like Kenny Irons, Chris Henry (Titans RB), etc. Guys who there's a really good chance will never amount to much of anything in the NFL.

Basically the odds of getting a similar player at No. 11 are extremely slim. Possible of course, but much more hit or miss.

That's true Max, I forgot about the rookie only part of it. Don't know what your league scoring is like, but in my (main) league RB is not as hot a commodity as it once was. I think it is because of fewer workhorse backs and that more teams are throwing at a higher rate.

Our top 15 in points last season had 7 QBs, 4 RBs, 2 WRs, & 2 Def/ST:

1. Brady, Tom NEP QB
2. Tomlinson, Ladainian SDC RB
3. Romo, Tony DAL QB
4. Westbrook, Brian PHI RB
5. Moss, Randy NEP WR
6. Manning, Peyton IND QB
7. Peterson, Adrian MIN RB
8. Favre, Brett GBP QB
9. Patriots, New England NEP Def/ST
10. Addai, Joseph IND RB
11. Brees, Drew NOS QB
12. Anderson, Derek CLE QB
13. Chargers, San Diego SDC Def/ST
14. Owens, Terrell DAL WR
15. Hasselbeck, Matt SEA QB

I would still say no to the trade though when considering the plus a very good player part.

quote:

Originally posted by Hungry5:


I would still say no to the trade though when considering the plus a very good player part.

The question is what does he have to trade and what players does Max have to replace the player? I think we need some more definitive information on what player you would trade.

quote:

Originally posted by Diggr14:



Insert Shocker.

I assume you're directing this solicitation at "Tickle Me Fedya".

quote:

He has shown the ability to play in the NFL at a superstar level. Setting the single-game rushing record against a pretty good run defense and being on track to break the rookie rushing record pre-knee injury proves the guy is extremely talented.

Obviously, his career could be derailed by injuries and whatnot, but there's little doubt in the minds of almost everyone that he is a superstar talent.

There is doubt and not just because of the injuries. The first time that he played against a team he generally tore them up but the next time around he didn't fare nearly as well. Not a coincidence. Happens all the time with rookie running backs. Teams see a once and the next around their better-equipped to deal with him.

That's not to say that he couldn't do it, but it's way too early to be putting him in the Walter Payton/Emmitt Smith/Barry Sanders class.

Shaun Alexander also looked awfully, awfully good for a couple of years and then he flamed out. So did Jamal Lewis.

I said "almost everyone." Shaun Alexander didn't look anywhere near that good, ever.

BTW, Peterson was worse against Chicago (although he did score 2 TDs) and Green Bay (although he was at 4.1 yards per carry before he got hurt), and much better against Detroit (20 for 66 in week 2, followed by 15 for 116 and 2 TDs in week 13). So your contention that he didn't fare as well the second time around is right in two cases and wrong in the third. I guess we'll find out for sure when he sees everyone again this season.

quote:

Originally posted by southOfTheLine:
Shaun Alexander also looked awfully, awfully good for a couple of years and then he flamed out

So did Jamal Lewis.

Uh he ran for 1300 yards and had 11 td's last year for the Browns.

quote:

Originally posted by southOfTheLine:

That's not to say that he couldn't do it, but it's way too early to be putting him in the Walter Payton/Emmitt Smith/Barry Sanders class.

Are you old enough to have seen all and remember all three of these guys play? because let me tell you that Emmitt Smith should never be mentioned with Payton and Sanders as in the same "class". I don't care if he is the all time leading rusher or not. Payton and Sanders were special running backs,Smith was a good running back who was just fortunate enough to have argueable one of the best offensive lines in NFL history on his side.

quote:

Originally posted by Max:

If you're convinced that McFadden is going to be a superstar like Adrian Peterson, as opposed to a disappointment like Reggie Bush, tell me why you think so.

Anybody who claims they thought Peterson would perform like he did is full of it IMO. Expecting THAT kind of performance from any player - rook or vet - is pretty unrealistic IMO. Obviously, sometimes lightning strikes.

I don't know anything about the league-stuff but I have a slant you may want to consider.

McFadden has abilities most RB's (even premier ones) don't. In any year he has rushed, caught, returned, and passed for numerous TD's. My point is there are ways to involve DM w/o him being "the guy" all the time. I'd have goalline/short yardage packages setup for him a la Tebow.

Peterson impact? I don't know if we'll see that again but I think McF has as much chance as any rook to be an impact guy.

Problem is for whom will he play? So much depends on that I think.

quote:

Originally posted by BackThePack:
Emmitt Smith should never be mentioned with Payton and Sanders as in the same "class".

The discussion should always be, Brown, then Sanders, then Payton, then everyone else.

quote:

Originally posted by Max:

quote:

Originally posted by Hungry5:
I think McFadden will be a good NFL player, maybe even great. I wouldn't give up the 11th overall and another player for him though. At #11 you could get close to an equal value from a fantasy perspective and then he wants you to give up another player?

Seems he is banking on some sort of Peterson-coat-tails RB love to dump the 1st (rookie) pick.

Well, since it's only a rookie draft, with the 11th pick I'm probably looking at a running back drafted in the 3rd round or so, or maybe a 2nd-round wide receiver. In other words, it's a lesser prospect whose odds of NFL success are probably a lot slimmer than that of McFadden. Last year the guys taken there in the rookie draft were probably guys like Kenny Irons, Chris Henry (Titans RB), etc. Guys who there's a really good chance will never amount to much of anything in the NFL.

Basically the odds of getting a similar player at No. 11 are extremely slim. Possible of course, but much more hit or miss.

Max -

I'm basically in the same boat. I play in a keeper league, I'm 10th in the rookie draft. Without a doubt McFadden will go number one.

In our league - we basically draft the rookie and have the option to IR/Taxi him a whole year - so basically we can then retain him for 4 years. Years ago it worked with Donovan McNabb, more recently with Willis McGhee, not so well with Cedric Benson (keeper leagues that don't have the rookie draft - well - suck).

Here's a sleeper for you at 11. Keep an eye on Ray Rice. He's been climbing in the workouts. They are starting to compare him to Maurice-Jones Drew. Thats who I have my eye on.

quote:

Originally posted by LSU4GB:
Anybody who claims they thought Peterson would perform like he did is full of it IMO. Expecting THAT kind of performance from any player - rook or vet - is pretty unrealistic IMO. Obviously, sometimes lightning strikes.

Not to mention there were also predraft question marks about his past history of injuries by some NFL scouts. However,while at Oklahoma he was a damn good player.

quote:

Originally posted by phlegm:
Here's a sleeper for you at 11. Keep an eye on Ray Rice. He's been climbing in the workouts. They are starting to compare him to Maurice-Jones Drew. Thats who I have my eye on.

I like Rice. He's from New Rochelle, NY, as is my wife.

If I had to guess, though, I think he'll be gone around 6 or 7.

Much will depend where he ends up...how good is the OL? How often do they throw? AP might not have been Rookie of the Year if he ended up with another team.

Be cautious.

The fact that this is a "rookie-only" draft makes it difficult to not pick McFadden. I just don't know that there is anybody else that has the potential to make a bigger impact than DMc. Chances are it won't be a QB (IMO), and the WR's are more dependent on the QB (and pass protection).
I think the variable that could make this deal swing either way is who you would have to give up. BTW, have you used that chart that compares the relative value of each draft pick for input?

quote:

Originally posted by Hungry5:

quote:

Originally posted by BackThePack:
Emmitt Smith should never be mentioned with Payton and Sanders as in the same "class".

The discussion should always be, Brown, then Sanders, then Payton, then everyone else.

I'd take Payton over Sanders. Hornung too. "When the game is on the line, Paul Hornung is the greatest player I've ever seen." -Vince Lombardi

Who's the other player you'd have to give up, Max?


McFadden Highlights