As of week 10:

 
 East                 W L T  Pct PF  PA Home   Road   Div  Conf  Streak   
 Dallas Cowboys       8 1 0 .889 296 195 3-1-0 5-0-0 3-0-0 6-0-0 Won 3   
 New York Giants      6 3 0 .667 220 190 3-2-0 3-1-0 2-2-0 4-3-0 Lost 1   
 Washington Redskins  5 4 0 .556 177 193 3-2-0 2-2-0 1-2-0 3-3-0 Lost 1   
 Philadelphia Eagles  4 5 0 .444 189 180 1-3-0 3-2-0 1-3-0 3-5-0 Won 1   
 
 North                W L T  Pct PF  PA  Home  Road  Div   Conf  Streak  
 Green Bay Packers    8 1 0 .889 228 142 4-1-0 4-0-0 2-1-0 5-1-0 Won 4   
 Detroit Lions        6 3 0 .667 221 216 4-0-0 2-3-0 3-0-0 4-3-0 Lost 1   
 Chicago Bears        4 5 0 .444 161 187 1-3-0 3-2-0 1-3-0 2-4-0 Won 1   
 Minnesota Vikings    3 6 0 .333 166 188 2-2-0 1-4-0 1-3-0 2-5-0 Lost 1   
 
 South                W L T  Pct PF  PA  Home  Road  Div   Conf  Streak  
 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 5 4 0 .556 164 144 4-1-0 1-3-0 2-0-0 4-2-0 Won 1   
 Carolina Panthers    4 5 0 .444 150 181 0-4-0 4-1-0 2-2-0 4-2-0 Lost 3   
 New Orleans Saints   4 5 0 .444 202 223 2-3-0 2-2-0 1-2-0 3-3-0 Lost 1   
 Atlanta Falcons      3 6 0 .333 135 182 2-2-0 1-4-0 1-2-0 2-4-0 Won 2   
 
 West                 W L T  Pct PF  PA  Home  Road  Div   Conf  Streak 
 Seattle Seahawks     5 4 0 .556 191 141 4-1-0 1-3-0 3-1-0 4-2-0 Won 1   
 Arizona Cardinals    4 5 0 .444 188 195 3-1-0 1-4-0 2-1-0 3-4-0 Won 1   
 San Francisco 49ers  2 7 0 .222 104 210 1-3-0 1-4-0 2-2-0 2-5-0 Lost 7   
 St. Louis Rams       1 8 0 .111 136 248 0-4-0 1-4-0 0-3-0 1-6-0 Won 1  
 

If it all ended today, the Packers would be the #2 seed and Dallas #1. But that scenario will iron itself out- they play in 3 weeks. Those are the only two teams that seem to have a grip on a playoff position, because the rest is completely up for grabs.

The WC looks like this right now:

 
 Wildcard           Overall  Conf 
 New York Giants      6 3     4-3
 Detroit Lions        6 3     4-3
*Tampa Bay Buccaneers 5 4     4-2
*Seattle Seahawks     5 4     4-2
 Washington Redskins  5 4     3-3
 Carolina Panthers    4 5     4-2
 New Orleans Saints   4 5     3-3 
 Arizona Cardinals    4 5     3-4
 Philadelphia Eagles  4 5     3-5
 Chicago Bears        4 5     2-4
 Atlanta Falcons      3 6     2-4
 Minnesota Vikings    3 6     2-5 
 * Current division leader

What a friggin' mess! Basically, only the Rams are truly out of it. The Seattle/SF game tonight will MAYBE take the 49ers out of the picture, but if the 49ers win, they are right back in it, and then there's a tie in that Division with the Cards. {EDIT} Seahawks win, so 49ers are essentially out of it}

The Packers, of course, control their own destiny. They can really remove the Lions as a threat by beating them Thanksgiving Day, and they can get the jump on Dallas the following week with a win. The Carolina has the makings of a tough game. The Panthers are right in the thick of this WC race, and they are only a game back from the Bucs for their division. They have a lot to play for, and they still have talent.

I will make this bold prediction, however- the NY Giants will not make the playoffs. I think that this coming week, they will be beaten by the Lions, becuase they are playing in Detroit (where Detroit is capable of winning). But what intrigues me is their last 5 games:

Sun 12/2 at Chicago 4:15 pm
Sun 12/9 at Philadelphia 1:00 pm
Sun 12/16 Washington 8:15 pm
Sun 12/23 at Buffalo 1:00 pm
Sat 12/29 New England 8:15 pm

I still think that Chicago is a team to watch out for. I think Philly will be wanting a piece of them at home. Washington is the team I think will come out of that division as the WC. Buffalo is a solid team, especially defensively. And of course, against NE where there is a possibility of them getting to 16-0 in the final week. I see 4 losses in that final 5 week period, possibly leaving them at 9-7. The Giants got fat on the Jets, Falcons, 49ers, and Miami to get where they are now. Their road to the finish line will be MUCH tougher.

I mentioned Chicago- anyone watching that game yesterday saw the same old Bears- they suck for an entire game, then get a big play for a TD, then the D takes over. From what I see, the Bears are a team that merely lacks the confidence that they had a season ago. Confidence can make you good in a hurry. They had no business winning that game yesterday, but like the Packers, they did by making a play. And it is entirely possible that Rex Grossman will play like a player fighting for his job, meaning he will be better. Because he can move in the pocket and create on the run, I think he's a better option than Griese. He throws a better deep ball, as well. I know it sounds crazy, but I think the Bears will be in it right until the end. With the exception of the Denver game 2 weeks from now, the Bears play the rest of their games are against other WC contenders. Something tells me that the Bears will keep a number of teams from making a move in the standings, and in doing so, keep themselves in it as well.

The final 7 weeks of this season are going to be crazy. The whole NFC is a mess...

Updated to show MNF results (Seattle 24, 49ers 0).

Nice insight and a nice thread. Nice job breaking it down MC. I think it will get a lot more hectic as the season draws to a close. Could a 9-7 or even an 8-8 team make the playoffs in the NFC?

I like the Giants to win this week. History is not on my side with their second-half of the season collapses the last two years. However, if this team is going to prove it deserves to be considered a contender in the NFC after their loss last week, they need to come out and smack the lions in the mouth.

I think personnel wise the Giants are a better team. There defense is capable of shutting down the Lions. It just really depends on whether these guys are going to try and retake the momentum they had going or whether they collapse like the last 2 years.

Well, with the NFC games all finished for week 11, so here's the new standings:

 NFC 
 East                 W  L T  Pct   PF  PA   Home  Road  Div   Conf  Streak   
 Dallas Cowboys       9  1 0 .900   324 218  4-1-0 5-0-0 4-0-0 7-0-0 Won 4   
 New York Giants      7  3 0 .700   236 200  3-2-0 4-1-0 2-2-0 5-3-0 Won 1   
 Philadelphia Eagles  5  5 0 .500   206 187  2-3-0 3-2-0 1-3-0 3-5-0 Won 2   
 Washington Redskins  5  5 0 .500   200 221  3-2-0 2-3-0 1-3-0 3-4-0 Lost 2   
 
 North                W L T   Pct   PF  PA   Home  Road  Div   Conf  Streak   
 Green Bay Packers    9 1 0  .900   259 159  5-1-0 4-0-0 2-1-0 6-1-0 Won 5   
 Detroit Lions        6 4 0  .600   231 232  4-1-0 2-3-0 3-0-0 4-4-0 Lost 2   
 Minnesota Vikings    4 6 0  .400   195 210  3-2-0 1-4-0 1-3-0 2-5-0 Won 1   
 Chicago Bears        4 6 0  .400   184 217  1-3-0 3-3-0 1-3-0 2-5-0 Lost 1   
   
 South                W L T   Pct   PF  PA  Home  Road  Div   Conf  Streak   
 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6 4 0  .600   195 151 4-1-0 2-3-0 3-0-0 5-2-0 Won 2   
 Carolina Panthers    4 6 0  .400   167 212 0-4-0 4-2-0 2-2-0 4-3-0 Lost 4   
 New Orleans Saints   4 6 0  .400   212 246 2-3-0 2-3-0 1-2-0 3-3-0 Lost 2   
 Atlanta Falcons      3 7 0  .300   142 213 2-3-0 1-4-0 1-3-0 2-5-0 Lost 1   
 
 West                 W L T   Pct   PF  PA  Home  Road  Div   Conf  Streak   
 Seattle Seahawks     6 4 0  .600   221 164 5-1-0 1-3-0 3-1-0 5-2-0 Won 2   
 Arizona Cardinals    5 5 0  .500   223 222 3-1-0 2-4-0 2-1-0 3-4-0 Won 2   
 San Francisco 49ers  2 8 0  .200   113 223 1-4-0 1-4-0 2-3-0 2-6-0 Lost 8   
 St. Louis Rams       2 8 0  .200   149 257 0-4-0 2-4-0 1-3-0 2-6-0 Won 2 
 

I think the Lions are done. They had their shot this weekend against a good team, at home... but they couldn't beat them. The Packers should be able to win Thursday. That will end the hopes that Detroit had for playoff glory.

The Packers and Cowboys are 3 games ahead of everyone else in the NFC (they both have the tie-breaker over the Giants). 3 games up with 6 to play.

Tampa and Seattle put themselves back over .500, with Tampa now 2 games in front and the Seahawks just a game in front of the Cards. You cna now finally count the Falcons out, as they have 7 losses and they aren't going to win out. The Vikings, Bears, Eagles, Saints and Redskins are all in it.

I guess the good thing as opposed to last week is that the Falcons elminated themselves. I think with Carolina's QB situation and Steve Smith being hurt, they will be officially out of it soon- they have lost 4 in a row. I think they're gone.

  Wildcard           Overall  Conf 
*Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6 4     5-2
*Seattle Seahawks     6 4     5-2
 New York Giants      7 3     5-3
 Detroit Lions        6 4     4-4
 Washington Redskins  5 5     3-4
 Arizona Cardinals    5 5     3-4
 Philadelphia Eagles  5 5     3-5 
 Carolina Panthers    4 6     4-2
 New Orleans Saints   4 6     3-3 
 Chicago Bears        4 6     2-5
 Minnesota Vikings    4 6     2-5 
 * Current division leader 

DET has a tough road ahead to make the playoffs. Both NYG and WAS have tough schedules but have the tie-reaker vs DET. The team with a good shot is ARI. From appearances, they have a pretty easy schedule these next 6 games.


SFO @ ARI
CLE @ ARI
ARI @ SEA
ARI @ NOS
ATL @ ARI
STL @ ARI

I think the only chance the Lions have is if they can beat the Packers this week. If they lose (like many of us expect) they will probably finish at 8-8 based on their remaining schedule.

GB and Dallas are locks to make the playoffs and it looks like Seattle, the NYG and Tampa have the inside track for 3 of the 4 remaining playoff spots and IMO I think Arizona and Philly are probably playing better right now than Detroit is.

how can you say the lions are done when they are still the #2 wildcard team. if they win on thursday they will be in great shape

i see detroit beating green bay on thanksgiving, then beating the vikings at the dome, and probably the chargers and chiefs after that. they might lose at green bay and at dallas. that would put them at 10-6 and guaranteed in. even 9-7 would probably get them in this year.

quote:

how can you say the lions are done when they are still the #2 wildcard team. if they win on thursday they will be in great shape

Because if anything, the Lions have proven they are not capable of beating good teams. Philly and Washington both trounced them, now NYG has as well. They also do not play well on the road.

The Lions are not done now, but they will be soon enough. Even if they beat GB Thursday, they have a huge hill to climb. I just don't think they'll beat GB Thursday. The only way I see that happening is if the Packers don't show, and under McCarthy, that hasn't happened. The Packers are a well-prepared team, and they have the better defense than Detroit. I am sure it will be a competitive game, but the Packers should win.

If they lose to GB that would put them at 6-5 with 3 road games remaining (Detroit has played terrible on the road this year) and two other home games against Dallas and KC. I think if GB beats them this week they will probably lose 3 more times after that (likely beating KC at home and at MN). 8-8 is no lock to get them in the playoffs.

The other thing they have going against them is that they've lost head to head games with just about all of the other NFC playoff contenders (Giants, Eagles, Cards, Redskins) so they aren't going to do well with the tiebreaker scenario either.

my point is that it's quite silly to say the lions are done and yet the vikings, panthers, saints, and bears are still in it. the lions have a two game lead on all of those teams, and none of those teams have showed much of anything all year. would you seriously believe that the panthers have a better chance under vinny testaverde than the lions do?

RE: Detroit...

A - I doubt DET wins Thursday. Against physical defensive fronts they have not faired well.
B - Their best chance at a win over the last 6 games will be @ MIN - and that is no gimme.

They could (I guess) go 3-3 and make the playoffs, but that would almost certainly require some road W's. Which they don't do well.

quote:

Originally posted by Anthony Dilweed:
how can you say the lions are done when they are still the #2 wildcard team. if they win on thursday they will be in great shape

if if if. If the dog didn't stop to take a sh...,, he would've caught the hare. If you had a brain you'd be smart. If the Vikings had a coach, they might beat the Packers.

They need a bit more than a coach.

quote:

my point is that it's quite silly to say the lions are done and yet the vikings, panthers, saints, and bears are still in it. the lions have a two game lead on all of those teams, and none of those teams have showed much of anything all year. would you seriously believe that the panthers have a better chance under vinny testaverde than the lions do?

Actually, I probably would

I think Carolina is a better team that Detoilet as are the Redskins, Giants, Cardinals, and Eagles.

The Lions are who we thought they were (i.e. a fraud)

quote:

would you seriously believe that the panthers have a better chance under vinny testaverde than the lions do?

I would say no- but I don;'t think either team will be there in December.

Look- the Lions can pass, but their OL sucks. They have a DT who is All Pro, but the rest of the D is suspect. Their are the definition of an incomplete team. They can beat a handful of crappy teams with that makeup, but come December, they're playing not-so-crappy teams. The weaknesses get exploited, and they'll lose.

quote:

Originally posted by Anthony Dilweed:
my point is that it's quite silly to say the lions are done and yet the vikings, panthers, saints, and bears are still in it. the lions have a two game lead on all of those teams, and none of those teams have showed much of anything all year. would you seriously believe that the panthers have a better chance under vinny testaverde than the lions do?

Bump...hello...mcfly...again...care to gnaw on some crow with that Turkey?

If my calcualtions are correct:

The Packers' magic number for the NFC North is now 1. The Lions have to win out, and the Packers have to lose out in order for the North to come out any different. If the Packers win one more game, or the Lions lose one more conference game, it's over. Champs.

Now the Lions are only a game in front of the rest of the WC contenders. Washington, Philly, and ARZ are all in position to catch them. Of course, Philly plays NE and Washington play TB, so both teams may remain a game back after Sunday. But the Cards have SF, so they may catch them.

I'm not gonna lie, the one team that scares me most for an early round upset is the Seahawks. Just another reason to get the number one seed, so we wouldn't be in line to face them, assuming they get the 3 seed.

I'm pulling for the Skins and Cards to get the wildcards.

Detroit really had to win today to put themselves in a good position for the playoffs because they've lost head to head games against a lot of teams that are competing with them for a playoff spot, i.e. Arizona, Philly, NYG, Washington. As we saw last year with GB the tiebreakers can really come back to haunt you and Detroit is not going to be in good shape if they finish 8-8 or something like that.

quote:

Originally posted by Music City:
If my calcualtions are correct:

The Packers' magic number for the NFC North is now 1. The Lions have to win out, and the Packers have to lose out in order for the North to come out any different. If the Packers win one more game, or the Lions lose one more conference game, it's over. Champs.

I don't think so. If the Packers win only 1 game and the Lions win 5, they would both finish 11-5. Head to head would be even. The Lions would have 1 loss in the division and the Packers would have 2 or 3 losses. Lions would get that tie breaker.

So the magic number is 2.

quote:

If the Packers win only 1 game and the Lions win 5, they would both finish 11-5. Head to head would be even. The Lions would have 1 loss in the division and the Packers would have 2 or 3 losses. Lions would get that tie breaker.

So the magic number is 2.

Yeah, I guess yu're right. Not that it matters- the Packer will win a couple more games at least, and the Lions aren't done losing.

quote:

Originally posted by Music City:

quote:

If the Packers win only 1 game and the Lions win 5, they would both finish 11-5. Head to head would be even. The Lions would have 1 loss in the division and the Packers would have 2 or 3 losses. Lions would get that tie breaker.

So the magic number is 2.

Yeah, I guess yu're right. Not that it matters- the Packer will win a couple more games at least, and the Lions aren't done losing.

Yeah, it's about as sure as the Bears still sucking and the Vikings choking.

I can't see the Packers winning less than 13 regular season games. I'd be much happier with 14 or 15, though. The Lions won't do better than 8-8.