I posted this in another thread but thought it needed its own discussion and now is the time IMO ...

quote:

If I was Attanasio, I would be pre-emptive and take 1 last shot at Fielder right now, right now as in today ...

I would offer to increase the last 2 years of his deal and offer a 3 yr deal after that at 25-30 million/yr whatever it would take.

I believe it would match Braun's signed tenure here, it would be short enough not to ham-string the Crew, it would sell tickets into a nice future, it would allow your scouting dept to really focus on pitching/defense/speed in the draft, it would up the ante on teams like the Cubs-Yankees-BoSox, etc.

I look at it this way, Attanasio and the Brewers franchise are not suppose to be doing this so they can get away with this every so often AND IMO the stars are aligning for them to do it. The Crew can always go back to a bargain bin mentality in regards to overall payroll, the likes of the Cubs, Yankees and others can not ... for them once a new ceiling has been hit on ANY 1 player in baseball as far as salary, they have to keep ante-ing up their entire payroll in order to keep up with the Jones's ...

I say NOW is the time to offer Prince out of the stratosphere short-period money and it could get done because he'd have a chance to do it again in his career to be a DH from the Yankees etc. coffers ... we own the bargaining rights with him now and the stars are aligning for the Crew to make a run for a title besides why not get Prince at possibly his most talented time of his career!

JMHO. Go Crew.

Love to hear from the stat guys, salary guys ... anyone with insight on this important time in Brewer Franchise history.

We screw this one up and we might have to wait a long, long time for another chance at a title ... Post Prince.

I'm all for it. I look at it this way. If I want to own a professional team, I ain't in it to make money. I'm in it to win titles and I'm a jock sniffer. This may be Mark A's biggest window he will ever have with the Crew.

I forgot about the other thread on this subject in all of my excitement ...
Mods may want to kill this.

And just when C-Boy and I agreed on something.

I seriously doubt that the Brewers have the financial flexibility to increase Fielder's salary in 2010. They signed Wolf but they must have not been in a position to pay him his full salary because 40+% of it will be paid after this season.

It's very hard to guage the salary situation after 2010 because there will just be so much uncertainty with arbitration. For instance, if Gallardo has All-Star type performance next year he could easily pull down 3.5 million or more the following year, but if he only does so-so it could only be 2 million. Now that's only a 1.5 million dollar difference but add Parra, Coffey, Hart, Weeks and even Fielder because he will be up for arbitration...if all these guys don't perform that well they could end up only costing "x" amount of dollars whereas if they all play very well they could end up costing "x + 10 million" so it's hard to do the arbitration estimates at this point.

However, if I just do my "best guess" on how guys perform in 2010 and then assign arbitration numbers for 2011, the following would be the salary estimates. I'm also going to assume things like Lucroy or Salome will be a full time MLB catcher, Heether being a 6th infielder this year playing well enough to earn a bench spot in 2011, and either John Axford or Chuck Lofgren pitch well enough this year and earn a bullpen spot in 2011, etc.

OF-Braun = 4.0
OF-Gomez = 2.75
OF-Hart = 5.5
IF-McGehee = 0.7
IF-Escobar = 0.7
IF-Weeks = 4.25
IF-Fielder = 18.0
IF-Heether = 0.5
C-Lucroy OR Salome = 0.4
SP-Wolf = 9.5
SP-Gallardo = 3.75
SP-Parra = 1.5
RP-Hawkins = 4.0
RP-Coffey = 2.75
RP-Villanueva = 1.75
RP-Stetter = 0.6
RP-Axford or Lofgren = 0.5
Dead money = 3.0 (Suppan, Hoffman, Riske, Zaun)
TOTAL = 64.15 million
Assuming the Brewers run in the usual range of 80-82 million, that would give them just slightly less than 18 million to work with. If they pick up the option on Hoffman that would cost them an additional 6.5 million, so then they would have their closer but would be down to about 11.5 million to spend. And they would likely need to add 2 starting pitchers, 1 or 2 relievers (with one being a closer if they let Hoffman go), a catcher, an infielder and a couple outfielders. If you keep Fielder about the only significant money you could dump would be Weeks or Hart. I'm not sure how much more help they will be able to get out of their minor league system. I'd say Gamel and Braddock would very likely be on this team and Lorenzo Cain should be in the mix. Taylor Green is probably in the same boat as Cain, he'd have a decent/outside shot in 2011. Lawrie is a possibility but I think 2012 is probably more likely. Braddock would be the only pitcher on my radar for 2011...Jeffress and Rogers might work themselves into that mix but I don't think it would be wise to count on an MLB contribution from either of these guys at this point. So while the Brewers very well might be able to fill all their position player needs from the system in 2011, they are going to need to have free agent dollars available because it's almost a certainty they will need to find 2 starters and a reliever (possibly a closer) through free agency or trade (and if they trade someone like Lawrie for an established MLB starter that starter is almost certain to cost the Brewers $ so if you're not spending it in free agency your are likely spending it in a trade situation).

So at this point I would say that it's virtually certain that the Brewers cannot pay Fielder anymore money this year and it's very likely they will not be in a position to pay him an amount significantly over 20 million dollars in 2011.

--------------------

A few months ago I went back and figured out what the greatest percentage of payroll Barry Bonds took up when he played for the Giants. It was something like 24%. So if people are talking about paying Fielder 25+ million per season, now you are getting up into a range that is literally over 30% of the team's payroll. I think it would be impossible to field a competitive team under these circumstances.

--------------------

Just to throw one more spin on giving Fielder a long-term deal:

Player - year - age - OPS

Prince - 2007 - 23 - 1.013
Prince - 2008 - 24 - .879
Prince - 2009 - 25 - 1.014

Cecil - 1987 - 23 - .905
Cecil - 1988 - 24 - .721
Cecil - 1989 - 25 - .969
Cecil - 1990 - 26 - .860
Cecil - 1991 - 27 - .783
And note that for the remainder of his career Cecil never posted an OPS greater than .840.

Now certainly I'm not saying that Prince and Cecil are the same guy but Prince's body certainly does not scream longevity. Note that the last great season his father had was at the age of 25. If a team like the Brewers give Fielder a long term deal that pays him 20+ million per season (I'm not even talking about 25-30 million per season...let's just say 20 million) and Prince just slips back to the level he played at in 2008 (.276/.372/.507/.879, 34 HR, 102 RBI) and plays at that level consistently through the remainder of the contract, the return will not be justifying the investment. Not when you are the Milwaukee Brewers and are likely to run the payroll in the low 80's.

Nutrition and sports have changed so much since Cecil Fielder's playing days, that it's not even fair to make a comparison. A couple other points I'd like to make on this topic.

A) To my knowledge, nobody on X4 has access to the Brewers' books to understand what they can pay Prince after this contract.

B) Can anyone guarantee what the Brewers will draw at the gate if Prince is traded/leaves via free agency? One thing we all know is certain is that they are drawing way above the MLB average with him. The Brewers lose Prince, you never know what happens at the gate.

A) We have a pretty good idea as their payroll has been between 70-85M the past few years


B) No, but can you guarantee gate with him too? Not if they have sub .500 seasons. If you pay Prince 1/4 of the payroll.. you run the risk of having that happen if you cant bring in other talent. All-in-all it's nice to have that marquee name, but when it comes down to it MLB attendence is usually predicated on winning in good baseball markets, not one guy. If he will sign a contract similiar to Bay's then I dont have a problem with it. But 25-30M is ridiculous and not earned or warranted.

The first question had nothing to do with payroll. It had to do with what the Brewers bottom line was after gate receipts, concessions, merchandise sales, etc.

Regarding the second point, I agree that fans won't come watch garbage. However with Prince, Braun, Gallardo maturing and most likely improving, I'll take my chances with the Brewers being perennial contenders.

quote:

Originally posted by Orlando Wolf:
The first question had nothing to do with payroll. It had to do with what the Brewers bottom line was after gate receipts, concessions, merchandise sales, etc.

Yes, obviously. But I think where they currently have the payroll is about the ceiling to where they want to have it based on estimated gate/concessions/merch... Someone asked Gord Ash on the radio here a couple weeks ago if Milwaukee would reach the 100M dollar payroll level in the near future. Gord Ash replied that it would not be sustainable because they realize that the gate and other sales are almost at the saturation level. Personally, im finding 85M amazing taking into consideration where this team was a mere 5 years ago.

Prince is just one piece of the puzzle. If he leaves but they win I doubt they will have a difficult time filling the stands. But that's the key here. I think the Brewers are close to a tipping point with the fans in that if they don't field competitive teams you won't see them draw as many people to the games. Attanasio has done a nice job increasing the payroll and making an attempt but you still need to win. In this state it's all about the Packers and everyone else (Brewers, Bucks) are 2nd fiddle. Last year there was still a lot of hope coming off the playoff appearance so they still were able to bring in a lot of fans. I think signing Wolf and getting a few others will give them hope again this year, but if they have another disappointing season like last year I think they could be in trouble.

I will say this though- Milwaukee is making an effort to win unlike the Bud Selig teams.

That brings us back to Prince Fielder. Sure, they will gain some flexibility with Hall and Suppan coming off the books, but they also added Wolf's salary so it's not like they are going to have $25MM sitting around to pay Prince UNLESS they up their payroll or shed salary in other areas like Hart, Weeks, Hoffman, etc. My concern is that if you pay Prince what he will likely command you aren't going to have any money left over to address other areas of the team. If this team had a lot of pitching ready in the minors then I'd say go for it but they don't. Even with adding Wolf I still think they will need pitching help.

quote:

Someone asked Gord Ash on the radio here a couple weeks ago if Milwaukee would reach the 100M dollar payroll level in the near future. Gord Ash replied that it would not be sustainable because they realize that the gate and other sales are almost at the saturation level. Personally, im finding 85M amazing taking into consideration where this team was a mere 5 years ago.

First of all, its not the level thats the problem, its what you're buying at that level that is the difference.And, If you read your own post there, I believe there is some corrolation between record setting attendance on a multi-year basis AND upping the payroll level.

If they win without Prince and bridge that to the next crop of youngsters, I believe the franchise is OK because they can drop payroll and still win and still draw fans.

BUT, if they don't win in that bridge AND they do not re-up Prince ... I could see the franchise spiral down from hence it came pre-Prince.

Thats why if I was Attanasio I would do 2 things simultaneously:

1) Negotiate with Prince RIGHT NOW to figure out what it would take to tie him in with Braun's tenured contract.

2) I would buy the best amateur and pro PITCHING scout's in the business in order to build the best minor-league pitching staff in the league to be the bridge when Braun and Prince have to probably leave.

Thats the bridge I would try and create in order for the franchise to continue to grow.

IMO, Attanasio has 1 helluva a Poker Chip in Prince Fielder, what he does with that Chip will probably be the most important correct decision for the franchise he'll see.

Trump that is brilliant. You hit it right on the head.

http://www.baseball-reference....rs/f/fieldce01.shtml

Cecil was not even around in 1989.

quote:

Now certainly I'm not saying that Prince and Cecil are the same guy but Prince's body certainly does not scream longevity. Note that the last great season his father had was at the age of 25. If a team like the Brewers give Fielder a long term deal that pays him 20+ million per season (I'm not even talking about 25-30 million per season...let's just say 20 million) and Prince just slips back to the level he played at in 2008 (.276/.372/.507/.879, 34 HR, 102 RBI) and plays at that level consistently through the remainder of the contract, the return will not be justifying the investment. Not when you are the Milwaukee Brewers and are likely to run the payroll in the low 80's.

My point on this thought process is:

If Braun is healthy and batting in front of Prince, all Prince has to do is show up at the ballpark and he'll probably have 30/125. IMO, if I'm the owner, those 2 guys in the lineup is money in the bank during that combo's tenure.
By leaning on this at the Major League level, it would give you time to concentrate on drafting/acquiring minor league pitching and making that staff one of the best by the time the Braun/Prince show leaves town.

Make no mistake, Braun's deal set the tone BUT now you can play this game decreasing the risk and pushing the Excitement of maybe the best 3and4 hitters in baseball, into the future.

IMO, Prince means more than his 2008 numbers ... the combo of Braun/Prince gives you 1 of THE best bases of a lineup in all of baseball for the relatively short period you'd be paying him.

If You Build It They Will Come!

We signed Wolf and Davis this off season so they attempted to shore up their starting pitching. I think both were good moves. The next step is getting Prince to sign long term. From everything I've read it's going to cost them dearly to sign Prince, but they have to sign him. He's a key to future success of this franchise. Wolf and Davis are stop gaps, but now they have to get some of those minor league guys to the majors. If they can sign Prince and develop some pitchers we'll be a contender for years to come.

Prince will only re-sign if it maximizes his earning potential and he can only maximize his earning potential by becoming a free agent. Our best hope is that the big spenders are all locked up at first base when his free agency comes around.

It would be great if somehow Milwaukee could buck the trend and resign a guy like Prince instead of him going to the highest bidder with unlimited resources (i.e. Yankees, Saux) but I am not going to hold my breath.

If he has another year like last season he will probably command $20-25MM per season and for a team like Milwaukee I don't know if they can afford to make that kind of a deal. You'd have to hope they did a Ryan Braun type contract, but my guess is that if Braun were in that same situation again maybe he'd hold out a little longer for more money, I don't know.

Tschmack ... I can hear it in your typing you're open to the possibility.

Ya Gotta Believe! Go Crew!

I've said this before on the forum, but if Prince was truly interested in working with the Brewers to find a way to sign a mutually beneficial contract there is no way he'd have Scott Boras as an agent. Boras almost always takes his clients to free agency and signs for the highest dollars. There is no such thing as a hometown discount for Boras' clients.

Prince may say the right things, but his decision to hire Boras as his agent speaks a lot louder than his words.

Boras is a tough hard nosed agent who does well for his clients. Having said that, the player is going to choose where he wants to play. I believe if the Brewers have a chance to win and if they can afford to pay him he'll sign with Milwaukee. There is no doubt it will come down to money so it will depend upon whether Attanasio will pay him and whether Mark is in this game to make money or to win.

I wouldn't assume that all of Boras' clients bail from their teams. I'm pretty sure that Greg Maddux resigned with the Braves back in the mid 90's and Bernie Williams resigned with the Yanks about the same time. Those are just a couple I can think of.

Sure, guys like A-Rod left Seattle (signing with Texas) and Zito took the money and ran (with San Francisco) but it's not like all of his clients split from their current teams.

What is known is this- there's a 95% chance that Boras is going to get you top dollar no matter what. That's not to say Milwaukee can't resign him, but my point is that they will have to compete with a team like Boston or New York and that won't be easy.

quote:

Originally posted by WarrenSpahn:
There is no doubt it will come down to money so it will depend upon whether Attanasio will pay him and whether Mark is in this game to make money or to win.

I don't get it. If Mark doesn't resign Prince it is because he isn't dedicated to winning?

I know Milwaukee would like to romanticize this, but it isn't 1992 anymore. It is possible Prince will price himself out of this market. Choosing a strategy of going punch for punch with a heavyweight isn't a good strategy if you weigh 180 lb's. You can still win, but you better have a better plan. Mark has certainly shown he can expand the payroll, but no one should expect him to be stupid with his money and keep the franchise for long.

Prince may stay in Milwaukee, but it will be because it maximized his earning potential. He picks a guy like Boras with that intention in mind. Be thankful that the Yankees locked up their man, and that some other marquis first basemen come due around the same time. That might make the market tolerable to keep a guy like Prince.

quote:

Originally posted by El-Ka-Bong:
I don't get it. If Mark doesn't resign Prince it is because he isn't dedicated to winning?

No, but I think he's going to have to make a strong effort to sign him.

good point

none of us saw that coming

quote:

Originally posted by El-Ka-Bong:
good point

none of us saw that coming