Jon Heyman from SI.com reports the Brewers are the frontrunners here. The Dodgers declined to offer Wolf arbitration so it wouldn't cost the Brew Crew a draft pick. According to Heyman this is an "affordable" price. Career stats 101-85 4.13. 2009 = 11-7 3.23. Looks like a positive move to me.

if and when it happens, we'll open a new thread

I have been a big critic of the Wolf contract but I agree totally that Wolf is no Suppan. There are two huge differences and you don't need to get into all the fancy fielding independent ERA and component ERA and BABIP sort of stuff.

In the three years prior to signing their contracts, Wolf posted a 1.28 WHIP and Suppan posted a 1.40 WHIP. How significant is that? In terms of allowing runners to reach base, Wolf has pitched like a solid #2 whereas Suppan was somewhere between a #3 and a #4.

The other thing is that when Wolf gets into trouble, he can get himself out of it. In the three years prior to signing their contracts, Wolf has struck out 7.38 batters per nine innings, whereas Suppan had only struck out 5.16 batters per nine innings, a huge differential.

While I'm not really all that thrilled with this Wolf deal, it is without question a much better deal for the Brewers than the Suppan disaster.

The only downside that I can think of to the signing of Wolf is if he gets hurt. When he has been healthy for the majority of a season he has pitched well.

As PJ mentioned, I really like his WHIP and strike out ratios. His BABIP was unusally low last year so his ERA was better than what it should have been. Given full health, I would expect an ERA in the 3.75-4.20 range. Bill James projects a 3.87 ERA for him next year.

This signing is pretty typical for Melvin. Randy Wolf had a nice year and got himself a pretty darn good contract. Melvin's history is that he tends to find serviceable players. Like Suppan, he may have over paid on Wolf, but he's probably better than anyone else we have right now if he pitches next year as he did this year. Are we better in the rotation now than we were last year? I'd say yes. Are we good enough to compete? Not yet.

This signing was dedicated to the three million fans that showed up the past two years.

The one problem I have had with the Doug Melvin tenure is the ability to marshall his limited resources.

Nothing against Randy Wolf, but outside of last year his ERA hasn't been below 4.00 since 2002. He was able to put together a good year last year (think Suppan circa 2006) and we throw $31,000,000 at him. Perhaps he will duplicate his 2009 performance, but I'll wager that he'll be a .500 type pitcher with an ERA north of 4. A decent middle of the rotation type of guy. Would it shock me if Randy Wolf and Dave Bush turned in similar numbers in 2010? No, but we'll be paying Wolf quite a bit more.

While I can understand some of the logic behind the signing (Brewers thin in rotation, don't have prospects to swing a big deal) the one I really don't get is LaTroy Hawkins. Hawkins has been a workhorse, but he's just a guy. Is he any better than a healthy Seth McClung. Perhaps a little bit, but not 2.5 million worth.


So if my math is right we'll be spending a total of $35,000,000 next year on Soup, Wolf, Hall, Riske and Hawkins. Seems like a lot.

I think we overpaid, but it was an inevitability that we were going to overpay someone, if not multiple someones to come in and pitch. Wolf is not the same type of pitcher as suppan and we did not overpay him like we did Jeff, but it is still a contract that i'd rather not have.. but it looks like if we want to make a run at the playoffs in this 2 year window we have.. we probably have to do this and maybe another starter.

Ironically, I think signings like these kind of signal that the brewers brass might not be too confident that we can get a Prince Fielder extension done. I doubt they will ever dismiss that fact they will, but privately I bet they aren't too confident.

The nice part about Prince being so damn good, is that even if he wont sign an extention he will command multiple top tier prospects. Im really surprised that teams like Boston and LAA havent come knocking hard.

Doug Melvin won't trade Prince he'll just take the draft picks just like he's always done.

quote:

Originally posted by brosto1:
This signing was dedicated to the three million fans that showed up the past two years.

I agree and shows Attanasio has a handle on his franchise and his fan base ... I like him as an owner. Smart man. A winner.

Yea this move is definitely dedicated to the three million fans who showed up last year, it has SCREW YOU!!!!!!!!!! written all over it. Instead trying to get Lackey on a one-year deal with an option we paid for craptastic pitchers like Wolf (last year was a fluke, just look at his numbers) & Hawkins (over-the-hill) but these are the kind of pitchers Dougie likes (throw the ball & watch the batter run around the bases). I thought the name of the game was strike guys out but not in Dougie's world (he'd rather blow guys up in five innings & lose 12-10 than have outstanding K numbers). This crap about about leaning on your offense (Braun & Fielder) is just that: CRAP! And oh yeah let's sign another guy coming off an injury: Mulder, he'll make a great companion for Chris Capuano in the minors or on the DL. This is an indictment of Doug Melvin's inability to draft pitchers worth a crap & a minor league system that can't seem to develop pitchers except for Gallardo. I know to some of you this may seem like a rant but it's just one fan who is extremely unhappy that the Brewers don't seem to be moving toward the ultimate goal of winning a World Championship like other teams(i.e, Yankees, Red Sox, Phillies, Cardinals, Dodgers).

now you are trying to sound dum

quote:

Originally posted by Packerfan1974:
Yea this move is definitely dedicated to the three million fans who showed up last year, it has SCREW YOU!!!!!!!!!! written all over it. Instead trying to get Lackey on a one-year deal with an option we paid for craptastic pitchers like Wolf (last year was a fluke, just look at his numbers) & Hawkins (over-the-hill) but these are the kind of pitchers Dougie likes (throw the ball & watch the batter run around the bases). I thought the name of the game was strike guys out but not in Dougie's world (he'd rather blow guys up in five innings & lose 12-10 than have outstanding K numbers). This crap about about leaning on your offense (Braun & Fielder) is just that: CRAP! And oh yeah let's sign another guy coming off an injury: Mulder, he'll make a great companion for Chris Capuano in the minors or on the DL. This is an indictment of Doug Melvin's inability to draft pitchers worth a crap & a minor league system that can't seem to develop pitchers except for Gallardo. I know to some of you this may seem like a rant but it's just one fan who is extremely unhappy that the Brewers don't seem to be moving toward the ultimate goal of winning a World Championship like other teams(i.e, Yankees, Red Sox, Phillies, Cardinals, Dodgers).

- Although your rant has some validity, the GM's mistakes have to be melted away because they can not dump and sign the big tickets like the Red Sox, Yankees and Cubs.

I'm more pissed that they didn't at least attempt this last year. The idea that they would go with that starting staff was laughable at best.

Personally, I don't believe it is enough either if the brass do not do anything else.

trump knocks it out of the park

Trump, I have to respectfully disagree with you that the GM's mistakes have to be melted away because they(the Brewers)cannot dump & sign the big tickets like the Red Sox, Yankees & Cubs ( this, to me, sounds like a copout like the EXCUSE that small market teams can't compete. They can, look at the Twins! I will agree with you though that the Brewers should have attempted something last year when the pitching market was miles & miles ahead of what it is this year.
I agree it's not enough if Doug Melvin doesn't do anything else this year but what else can he do but try to trade Dave Bush & Corey Hart but I don't believe they can accept anything more than Double A prospecta at best unless they want to push the payroll towards uncharted territory.
I hope that, even though you may not agree with what I post, that you can at least respect where I'm coming from & that everyone else can too but if you or anyone else can't, that's OK too. I will never be confused with being a Doug Melvin & Brewer homer, I'm just a very frustrated fan who doesn't see this franchise making any progress, just continuing to spin it's wheels, after all, how much capital & good will can be left after making the playoffs & getting swept by the eventual World Champion Philadelphia Phillies in 2008.

Here's hoping Wolf can pick up the leadership void left with Cameron's departure. That's a concern. Still a lot of youth on this team and Cameron always seemed to be a respected voice.

quote:

Originally posted by Packerfan1974:
Doug Melvin won't trade Prince he'll just take the draft picks just like he's always done.

Richie Sexson was a long time ago now...

quote:

Originally posted by El-Ka-Bong:
now you are trying to sound dum

Hey that's my job

quote:

Originally posted by Packerfan1974:
Doug Melvin won't trade Prince he'll just take the draft picks just like he's always done.

I challenge you to find any evidence of such a pattern.

quote:

Instead trying to get Lackey on a one-year deal with an option...

That you even suggest this is laughable on so many levels. But, just for the sake of argument, let's say that such a deal was within the realm of possibility. How do you know that Melvin never approached Lackey about a contract?

quote:

This is an indictment of Doug Melvin's inability to draft pitchers worth a crap

DM doesn't handle the draft. That was Jack Z's realm. I forget the name of the guy who replaced him.

quote:

I know to some of you this may seem like a rant

You think?

to beat out Lackey's 5 year 82.5 million dollar contract with a 1 year + option contract, I'm guessing that an offer of 25 million a year, with the second year vesting after the first pitch of spring training, might have gotten the job done. That would have been laughable, but I'm guessing everyone knew that.

4 mil deferred for the upcoming season meaning some more wiggle room for some moves.

http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/79977212.html

I dont know how much more wiggle room, I think it's more to help the franchise swallow the large salary pill they are going to have to start the season. It MAY signal something coming with Prince?

I'd been trying to figure out how the Brewers were going to pump the payroll up to 85+ million considering the economic conditions? Well now I know. You take the 84.8 million dollar estimate I had for 22 players, add 1.2 million in minimum salaries for 3 rookie players....that puts them at 86 million...subtract off the 4 million in deferred money to Wolf...and that puts them right at the expected target of 82 million.

Looking at all the numbers and what was expected, I think the Brewers are right at the target and adding anybody that will make over 1 million dollars is probably an unlikely scenario. Yeah, I could be misreading Attanasio's intended opening day payroll but if I was a betting man I'd bet that the Brewers are pretty much done with any notable off-season transactions.

I still think they need one more outfielder and am kind of puzzled how they are going to get anyone decent to fill the role? Melvin is going to have to work some magic here and find himself another Gabe Kapler.

They only way they are going to get more pitching at this point is to make some salary neutral moves that would probably involve trading a player like Corey Hart or Mat Gamel away. But how good of a pitcher are you going to get for Corey Hart...and if you trade Gamel away you'd have to trade him for a pitcher that makes next to nothing and what team out there is going to trade a cheap pitcher that is attractive enough to the Brewers that they would part with Mat Gamel?

I think this is probably your opening day roster in 2010:

C-Gregg Zaun and one of the following : George Kottaras, Matt Treanor, Jonathan Lucroy, Angel Salome

IF-Prince Fielder, Rickie Weeks, Alcides Escobar, Casey McGehee, Craig Counsell, Adam Heether

OF-Ryan Braun, Carlos Gomez, Corey Hart, Jody Gerut and #5 is a big question mark (Trent Oeltjen?)

Rotation-Yovani Gallardo, Randy Wolf, Dave Bush, Manny Parra, Jeff Suppan

Bullpen-Trevor Hoffman, LaTroy Hawkins, Todd Coffey, Mitch Stetter, Claudio Vargas, Carlos Villanueva, and either Chuck Lofgren or John Axford

If they don't find another outfielder they just might keep 8 relievers which IMO might be the best option considering the back end of the rotation still looks shakey and the way Macha destroyed the bullpen last year.